As Americans head to the polls, the implications stretch far beyond US borders. For Taiwan, the stakes are especially high. The nation faces a stark contrast in potential US foreign policy: a continuation of robust alliances and support under Kamala Harris, or a shift toward isolationism with Donald Trump’s “America First” approach. Will the next U.S. administration safeguard Taiwan’s future, or leave it vulnerable to a shifting geopolitical landscape?
As US voters cast their ballot today, the global implications of whoever becomes the next US president could be consequential. Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have chartered diverging world views when it comes to US foreign policy. One of embracing and strengthening alliances with the latter of “America First” isolationism. As Taiwan’s top security guarantor, the next US president could significantly set the direction on how Taiwan defends itself against an ever aggressive China.
Harris and her surrogates continue to argue for a US foreign policy that values alliances and partners. US Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Ranking Member of the Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the US and the Chinese Communist Party, argues that Taiwan policy under Harris would continue to strengthen alliances to ensure that Chinese adventurism is kept at bay. "She's going to continue to knit our partners, friends and allies together in the region to make it clear that aggression and use of force are unacceptable. The more aggression that they take, the more countermeasures they'll face." He goes on to make the case that a Harris administration would ensure that the Taiwanese people will be able to live in peace, able to have sovereignty, and that they're able to deter aggression from China.
In an October 7 interview with 60 Minutes, Harris expressed her support for Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, in line with previous comments in 2022 aboard the USS Howard Naval Ship. “The United States believes that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is an essential feature of a free and open Indo-Pacific.
We will continue to oppose any unilateral change to the status quo. And we will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense, consistent with our longstanding policy.” She went further to describe the country, “Taiwan is a vibrant democracy that contributes to the global good, from technology to health and beyond, and the United States will continue to deepen our unofficial ties.” She has also included the Six Assurances into the Democratic party platform for the first time, while it disappeared from Trump’s Republican party platform this year. The Six Assurances was passed by the Regan administration in 1982 to ensure continued support for Taiwan’s security, including the provision of arms to Taiwan without prior Chinese consultation and not forcing Taiwan into entering political negotiations with China.
In contrast, Trump has repeatedly attacked Taiwan this year, accusing the country of stealing the semiconductor chip business from the US, questioning the need for U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion, and asking Taiwan to pay up for US military protection.
David Sacks at the Council on Foreign Relations argues that Trump’s comments on Taiwan are fully consistent with his worldview and is unlikely to change. He also argues that, “if Trump could not be persuaded to support arming Ukraine, it would be unlikely that he would assist Taiwan.”
In an October 24 interview with the BBC, Trump’s own former National Security Advisor John Bolton, a long-time vocal supporter and frequent visitor of Taiwan, mentioned that Taiwan could potentially be toast if Trump was re-elected. Bolton spoke off of first hand experience, witnessing Trump describe Taiwan on numerous occasions while sitting behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office, holding up a Sharpie pen and pointing to the tip and saying, “See that? That's Taiwan,” before pointing to the desk and saying “That's China.”
When it comes to the bipartisan consensus in Washington around strengthening global alliances and supporting Taiwan’s defense capabilities to keep it away from the hands of China as a core part of US national interest, Trump is at odds with his own party’s colleagues on Capitol Hill. Rush Doshi, former deputy senior director for China and Taiwan affairs on President Biden’s National Security Council, argues that Trump’s rhetoric on Taiwan is extremely dangerous. It weakens the bipartisan deterrence against Chinese aggression, especially with his recent comments on asking Taiwan to pay the US to defend it, while casting doubt on America’s ability to militarily defend Taiwan. Doshi stresses that such a tone could embolden China to take Taiwan by force.
In any case, the bipartisan support in the US Congress that Taiwan enjoys, could exert pressure on any incoming administration to address fallbacks, such as the current arms sales delivery backlog. At the same time, this support also serves as a buffer in any potential presidency that comes with skepticism of allies and partners and of the resolve to protect them against authoritarian aexpansionist actors. It remains to be seen who and what policy will lead in the White House next January. Nevertheless, Taiwan would be well advised to maintain and strengthen ties with both Democrats and Republicans to ensure that the country is well high on the US foreign policy and defense agenda, while enhancing its own self-defense capabilities to prevent any unexpected disruptions that could come from the White House or in the worst case scenario, belligerent actions from China itself.
This article was previously published on CommonWealth Magazine on Nov 05, 2024.
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